Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks on Thursday, March 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Mavericks about a 76% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Mavericks 76%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 111, Dallas Mavericks 118. The rating gap is 101 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 118 a game and allow 116. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.2 for the Wizards and 114.2 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Mavericks lead 3-1, with the Mavericks outscoring the Wizards by an average of 13.5 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 111, WAS 105.