Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks on Thursday, March 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 91% chance, and the Nets would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 91%, with a projected score of Brooklyn Nets 108, Atlanta Hawks 122. The rating gap is 296 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Nets are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -18. The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6.
The Nets were beaten 136-101 on the road by TOR not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Nets score 111 a game and allow 123.7. The Hawks score 124.7 and allow 109. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110 for the Nets and 124.2 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tyler Bilodeau (BKN), expected back Oct 27, 2026, Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Mikel Brown Jr. (BKN), RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), and Jock Landale (ATL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 6-1, with the Hawks outscoring the Nets by an average of 11.6 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 141, BKN 107.