Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs on Thursday, March 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 79% chance, and the 76ers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 79%, with a projected score of Philadelphia 76ers 110, San Antonio Spurs 119. The rating gap is 135 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The 76ers are 3-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.6. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The 76ers were beaten 144-114 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The 76ers score 110 a game and allow 107. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111 for the 76ers and 109.5 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Spurs should find points against the 76ers' defense, which has been giving up 107.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dominick Barlow (PHI), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Ariel Hukporti (PHI), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Tacko Fall (PHI), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jabari Walker (PHI) and Joel Embiid (PHI). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 3-1, with the Spurs outscoring the 76ers by an average of 14 points per game. The last meeting was PHI 102, SAS 115.