Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics on Thursday, March 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Celtics about a 88% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Celtics 88%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 109, Boston Celtics 121. The rating gap is 240 points in favor of the Celtics, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Celtics on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 8 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6. The Celtics are 1-1 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
The Celtics were beaten 113-97 at home by PHI not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Devin Carter (BOS), expected back Nov 8, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Karim Lopez (MEM) and Isaiah Stewart (MEM). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Celtics lead 3-1, with the Celtics outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 12.3 points per game. The last meeting was BOS 117, MEM 112.