Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons on Thursday, March 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Pistons about a 91% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 91%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 108, Detroit Pistons 122. The rating gap is 293 points in favor of the Pistons, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Pistons on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Pistons are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.6.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bucks score 119 a game and allow 129. The Pistons score 118.3 and allow 105.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.4 for the Bucks and 123.7 for the Pistons, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks' offense is the stronger unit against the Pistons' defense.
The Bucks have defended better than the Pistons have scored, so the Pistons may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Nov 9, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ausar Thompson (DET) and Isaiah Joe (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bucks lead 5-3, with the Pistons outscoring the Bucks by an average of 0.8 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 111, DET 137.