Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets on Thursday, March 11 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hornets about a 82% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hornets 82%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 110, Charlotte Hornets 119. The rating gap is 168 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hornets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.8. The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 121.3 a game and allow 116.7. The Hornets score 102 and allow 113.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.5 for the Pacers and 109.4 for the Hornets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers' offense is the stronger unit against the Hornets' defense.
The Pacers have defended better than the Hornets have scored, so the Hornets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Ivica Zubac (IND), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kobe Brown (IND) and Naz Reid (CHA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hornets lead 4-3, with the Hornets outscoring the Pacers by an average of 6.3 points per game. The last meeting was IND 108, CHA 129.