Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings on Wednesday, March 10 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Kings at only 52%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Kings 52%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 114, Sacramento Kings 115. The rating gap is 87 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Kings on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Warriors would win.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8. The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Warriors score 111.7 a game and allow 123. The Kings score 109.3 and allow 124. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.9 for the Warriors and 116.2 for the Kings, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have been tough to score on, which should slow the Warriors.
The Warriors have defended better than the Kings have scored, so the Kings may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Gui Santos (GSW), Charles Bassey (GSW), and Keegan Murray (SAC). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Warriors outscoring the Kings by an average of 5.2 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 118, SAC 124.