The Win Meter favors the Timberwolves at home against the Hawks on Wednesday, March 10, at about 68%. That is a real edge, but the Hawks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 68%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 112, Minnesota Timberwolves 117. The rating gap is 30 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 32 times in 100 games like this, the Hawks would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Timberwolves are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 124.7 a game and allow 109. The Timberwolves score 121 and allow 97.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.2 for the Hawks and 115 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hawks' offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
The Timberwolves should find points against the Hawks' defense, which has been giving up 109.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026, and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), Jock Landale (ATL), and Anthony Edwards (MIN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Hawks outscoring the Timberwolves by an average of 1.7 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 116, MIN 138.