The Win Meter favors the Thunder on the road against the Raptors on Wednesday, March 10, at about 59%. That is a real edge, but the Raptors are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 59%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 116, Toronto Raptors 113. The rating gap is 165 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Raptors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 41 times in 100 games like this, the Raptors would win.
Recent form
The Thunder are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.8. The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Thunder score 106.7 a game and allow 96.3. The Raptors score 113.7 and allow 103.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 105.2 for the Thunder and 105 for the Raptors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Raptors should find points against the Thunder's defense, which has been giving up 96.3.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cason Wallace (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Jalen Williams (OKC), expected back Mar 2, 2027, Chet Holmgren (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kawhi Leonard (TOR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 3-1, with the Thunder outscoring the Raptors by an average of 14 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 116, TOR 107.