New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday, March 10 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hornets about a 81% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hornets 81%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 110, Charlotte Hornets 119. The rating gap is 148 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hornets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Hornets score 102 and allow 113.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119.2 for the Pelicans and 115 for the Hornets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Hornets' defense.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Hornets have scored, so the Hornets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Kon Knueppel (CHA), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Grant Williams (CHA), expected back Oct 30, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Naz Reid (CHA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Hornets outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 7.5 points per game. The last meeting was NOP 95, CHA 102.