Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday, March 9 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 94% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 94%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 106, San Antonio Spurs 123. The rating gap is 386 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 17 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 118 a game and allow 116. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115 for the Wizards and 114 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Wizards' offense is the stronger unit against the Spurs' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Spurs lead 4-0, with the Spurs outscoring the Wizards by an average of 13.8 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 124, WAS 113.