The Win Meter favors the Mavericks at home against the Grizzlies on Tuesday, March 9, at about 68%. That is a real edge, but the Grizzlies are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Mavericks 68%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 112, Dallas Mavericks 117. The rating gap is 27 points in favor of the Mavericks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 32 times in 100 games like this, the Grizzlies would win.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Grizzlies score 119 a game and allow 107.7. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.7 for the Grizzlies and 110 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Caleb Martin (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Zach Edey (MEM), Karim Lopez (MEM), and Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Grizzlies lead 7-2, with the Grizzlies outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 11.2 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 120, MEM 112.