New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday, March 8 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Timberwolves about a 85% chance, and the Pelicans would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 85%, with a projected score of New Orleans Pelicans 109, Minnesota Timberwolves 120. The rating gap is 202 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4. The Timberwolves are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pelicans score 124.7 a game and allow 128. The Timberwolves score 121 and allow 97.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.2 for the Pelicans and 124.5 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans' offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
The Pelicans have defended better than the Timberwolves have scored, so the Timberwolves may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026 and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Anthony Edwards (MIN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 5-2, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 8.9 points per game. The last meeting was NOP 126, MIN 132.