The edge goes to the Hawks on the road against the Grizzlies on Monday, March 8, at about 65%. That is a real edge, but the Grizzlies are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 65%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 117, Memphis Grizzlies 113. The rating gap is 211 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Grizzlies on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 35 times in 100 games like this, the Grizzlies would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Grizzlies are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 124.7 a game and allow 109. The Grizzlies score 119 and allow 107.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 116.2 for the Hawks and 114 for the Grizzlies, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hawks' offense is the stronger unit against the Grizzlies' defense.
The Grizzlies should find points against the Hawks' defense, which has been giving up 109.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027 and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), Jock Landale (ATL), and Zach Edey (MEM). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 3-1, with the Hawks outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 6.7 points per game. The last meeting was MEM 107, ATL 146.