The edge goes to the Heat at home against the Pacers on Saturday, March 6, at about 75%. That is a real edge, but the Pacers are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Heat 75%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 111, Miami Heat 118. The rating gap is 93 points in favor of the Heat, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.8. The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 121.3 a game and allow 116.7. The Heat score 109 and allow 124.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 123 for the Pacers and 112.9 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers have defended better than the Heat have scored, so the Heat may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, and Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND) and Pelle Larsson (MIA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Pacers lead 4-3, with the Pacers outscoring the Heat by an average of 2.7 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 118, IND 135.