Recent form is the story in San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets on Friday, March 5. The Rockets have won 4 of their last 5, while the Spurs have won 1.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 52%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 114, Houston Rockets 115. The rating gap is 85 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 48 times in 100 games like this, the Spurs would win.
The recent-form gap
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Rockets are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Spurs score 112 a game and allow 112. The Rockets score 121 and allow 111.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.7 for the Spurs and 116.5 for the Rockets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Rockets should find points against the Spurs' defense, which has been giving up 112.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026, Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Quadir Copeland (HOU), and Julian Phillips (HOU).
Day to day or questionable: Marcus Smart (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Rockets lead 5-4, with the Rockets outscoring the Spurs by an average of 0.2 points per game. The last meeting was HOU 114, SAS 110.