Our ratings lean toward the Pelicans at home against the Bucks on Friday, March 5, at about 71%. That is a real edge, but the Bucks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Pelicans 71%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 112, New Orleans Pelicans 117. The rating gap is 52 points in favor of the Pelicans, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pelicans on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 3 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Pelicans are 0-3 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.4.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Pelicans were beaten 144-118 on the road by BOS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bucks score 119 a game and allow 129. The Pelicans score 124.7 and allow 128. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 123.5 for the Bucks and 126.9 for the Pelicans, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pelicans have been tough to score on, which should slow the Bucks.
Injuries to watch
Out: Yves Missi (NOP), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bucks lead 4-0, with the Bucks outscoring the Pelicans by an average of 13.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 139, NOP 118.