Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings on Thursday, March 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 83% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 83%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 119, Sacramento Kings 110. The rating gap is 372 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Kings on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Thunder are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.8. The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Thunder score 106.7 a game and allow 96.3. The Kings score 109.3 and allow 124. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115.4 for the Thunder and 102.8 for the Kings, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have been tough to score on, which should slow the Thunder.
The Kings should find points against the Thunder's defense, which has been giving up 96.3.
Injuries to watch
Out: Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jaylin Williams (OKC), Cason Wallace (OKC), and Keegan Murray (SAC). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 6-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Kings by an average of 20.3 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 99, OKC 113.