Washington Wizards at Golden State Warriors on Thursday, March 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Warriors about a 79% chance, and the Wizards would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Warriors 79%, with a projected score of Washington Wizards 110, Golden State Warriors 119. The rating gap is 132 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6. The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Wizards score 118 a game and allow 116. The Warriors score 111.7 and allow 123. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.5 for the Wizards and 113.9 for the Warriors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors have been tough to score on, which should slow the Wizards.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Gui Santos (GSW) and Charles Bassey (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 4-0, with the Warriors outscoring the Wizards by an average of 8.5 points per game. The last meeting was WAS 126, GSW 131.