Our ratings lean toward the Knicks on the road against the Mavericks on Thursday, March 4, at about 75%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 75%, with a projected score of New York Knicks 118, Dallas Mavericks 111. The rating gap is 292 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Knicks score 101.7 a game and allow 108. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110 for the Knicks and 110.2 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Mavericks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Knicks.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jose Alvarado (NYK), Caleb Martin (DAL), and Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Mavericks outscoring the Knicks by an average of 3.8 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 114, NYK 97.