Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks on Thursday, March 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 86% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 86%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 109, Atlanta Hawks 120. The rating gap is 211 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6. The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Grizzlies score 119 a game and allow 107.7. The Hawks score 124.7 and allow 109. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 114 for the Grizzlies and 116.2 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Grizzlies' offense is the stronger unit against the Hawks' defense.
The Hawks should find points against the Grizzlies' defense, which has been giving up 107.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027 and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Zach Edey (MEM), Karim Lopez (MEM), RayJ Dennis (ATL), and Keshon Gilbert (ATL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 3-1, with the Hawks outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 6.8 points per game. The last meeting was MEM 107, ATL 146.