Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic on Thursday, March 4 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Magic about a 81% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Magic 81%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 110, Orlando Magic 119. The rating gap is 150 points in favor of the Magic, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Magic on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.8. The Magic are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -11.2.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 121.3 a game and allow 116.7. The Magic score 109.7 and allow 116.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.8 for the Pacers and 113.2 for the Magic, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers' offense is the stronger unit against the Magic's defense.
The Pacers have defended better than the Magic have scored, so the Magic may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND) and Jalen Suggs (ORL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Magic lead 5-2, with the Magic outscoring the Pacers by an average of 3.3 points per game. The last meeting was IND 128, ORL 126.