San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, March 3 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Nuggets at only 51%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 51%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 114, Denver Nuggets 115. The rating gap is 91 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 49 times in 100 games like this, the Spurs would win.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026, Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN) and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 4-3, with the Nuggets outscoring the Spurs by an average of 2.1 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 128, SAS 118.