Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat on Wednesday, March 3 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Heat at only 55%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Heat 55%, with a projected score of Toronto Raptors 114, Miami Heat 115. The rating gap is 66 points in favor of the Raptors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 45 times in 100 games like this, the Raptors would win.
Recent form
The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4. The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Raptors score 113.7 a game and allow 103.7. The Heat score 109 and allow 124.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 119.2 for the Raptors and 106.4 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Heat have been tough to score on, which should slow the Raptors.
The Heat should find points against the Raptors' defense, which has been giving up 103.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Kawhi Leonard (TOR) and Pelle Larsson (MIA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Raptors lead 5-3, with the Raptors outscoring the Heat by an average of 5.6 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 114, TOR 128.