Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday, March 3 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hawks about a 86% chance, and the Bulls would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hawks 86%, with a projected score of Chicago Bulls 109, Atlanta Hawks 120. The rating gap is 209 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hawks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bulls are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -17. The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6.
The Bulls were beaten 135-92 on the road by TOR not long ago.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bulls score 114.7 a game and allow 128. The Hawks score 124.7 and allow 109. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.9 for the Bulls and 126.4 for the Hawks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bulls' offense is the stronger unit against the Hawks' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Nicolas Claxton (CHI), expected back Nov 4, 2026, Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, and Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Noa Essengue (CHI), Patrick Williams (CHI), RayJ Dennis (ATL), and Keshon Gilbert (ATL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Bulls lead 5-2, with the Bulls outscoring the Hawks by an average of 1.7 points per game. The last meeting was CHI 126, ATL 123.