Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday, March 2 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 76% chance, and the Timberwolves would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 76%, with a projected score of Minnesota Timberwolves 111, Oklahoma City Thunder 118. The rating gap is 102 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Timberwolves are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2. The Thunder are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.8.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Timberwolves score 121 a game and allow 97.7. The Thunder score 106.7 and allow 96.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 108.7 for the Timberwolves and 102.2 for the Thunder, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Timberwolves' offense is the stronger unit against the Thunder's defense.
The Thunder should find points against the Timberwolves' defense, which has been giving up 97.7.
Injuries to watch
Out: Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027, Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Jaylin Williams (OKC) and Cason Wallace (OKC). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 8-5, with the Thunder outscoring the Timberwolves by an average of 2.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 103, OKC 116.