The Win Meter favors the Mavericks at home against the Warriors on Tuesday, March 2, at about 60%. That is a real edge, but the Warriors are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Mavericks 60%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 113, Dallas Mavericks 116. The rating gap is 31 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 40 times in 100 games like this, the Warriors would win.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Warriors score 111.7 a game and allow 123. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115 for the Warriors and 117.7 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Mavericks have been tough to score on, which should slow the Warriors.
The Warriors have defended better than the Mavericks have scored, so the Mavericks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Gui Santos (GSW), Charles Bassey (GSW), Caleb Martin (DAL), and Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 4-3, with the Warriors outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 3 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 137, DAL 131.