Memphis Grizzlies at New York Knicks on Tuesday, March 2 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 91% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 91%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 107, New York Knicks 122. The rating gap is 311 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 4-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +1.6. The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 132-101 on the road by HOU not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Grizzlies score 116.8 a game and allow 107. The Knicks score 101.7 and allow 108. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 112.4 for the Grizzlies and 104.4 for the Knicks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Grizzlies' offense is the stronger unit against the Knicks' defense.
The Grizzlies have defended better than the Knicks have scored, so the Knicks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jose Alvarado (NYK), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 4-0, with the Knicks outscoring the Grizzlies by an average of 15.5 points per game. The last meeting was NYK 130, MEM 119.