Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets on Monday, March 1 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Rockets about a 82% chance, and the Warriors would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 82%, with a projected score of Golden State Warriors 110, Houston Rockets 119. The rating gap is 169 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8. The Rockets are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Warriors score 111.7 a game and allow 123. The Rockets score 121 and allow 111.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.5 for the Warriors and 122 for the Rockets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Moses Moody (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Quadir Copeland (HOU).
Day to day or questionable: Gui Santos (GSW), Charles Bassey (GSW), and Marcus Smart (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 8-7, with the Warriors outscoring the Rockets by an average of 0.3 points per game. The last meeting was HOU 117, GSW 116.