Miami Heat at Houston Rockets on Sunday, February 28 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Rockets about a 77% chance, and the Heat would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Rockets 77%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 111, Houston Rockets 118. The rating gap is 115 points in favor of the Rockets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Rockets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 4 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Rockets are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +3.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Rockets' best recent win was 128-110 at home against DAL.
The Rockets were beaten 98-78 at home by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Heat score 109 a game and allow 124.7. The Rockets score 121 and allow 111.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 110.2 for the Heat and 122.9 for the Rockets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
Injuries to watch
Out: Steven Adams (HOU), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Quadir Copeland (HOU), and Julian Phillips (HOU).
Day to day or questionable: Pelle Larsson (MIA) and Marcus Smart (HOU). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Heat outscoring the Rockets by an average of 2.2 points per game. The last meeting was MIA 122, HOU 123.