Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks on Sunday, February 28 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Knicks about a 92% chance, and the Bucks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Knicks 92%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 107, New York Knicks 122. The rating gap is 332 points in favor of the Knicks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Knicks on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 13 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Knicks are 0-3 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -2.8.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bucks score 119 a game and allow 129. The Knicks score 101.7 and allow 108. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113.5 for the Bucks and 115.4 for the Knicks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks' offense is the stronger unit against the Knicks' defense.
The Bucks have defended better than the Knicks have scored, so the Knicks may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jose Alvarado (NYK), expected back Oct 27, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Knicks lead 5-1, with the Knicks outscoring the Bucks by an average of 15.5 points per game. The last meeting was NYK 127, MIL 98.