Sacramento Kings at Charlotte Hornets on Sunday, February 28 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hornets about a 86% chance, and the Kings would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hornets 86%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 109, Charlotte Hornets 120. The rating gap is 216 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Hornets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10. The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Kings score 109.3 a game and allow 124. The Hornets score 102 and allow 113.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 111.5 for the Kings and 113 for the Hornets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have defended better than the Hornets have scored, so the Hornets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Keegan Murray (SAC), expected back Oct 27, 2026, and Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Kings outscoring the Hornets by an average of 3.2 points per game. The last meeting was SAC 90, CHA 134.