The edge goes to the Magic at home against the Hawks on Sunday, February 28, at about 58%. That is a real edge, but the Hawks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Magic 58%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 114, Orlando Magic 116. The rating gap is 42 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Magic on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 42 times in 100 games like this, the Hawks would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Magic are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -11.2.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 124.7 a game and allow 109. The Magic score 109.7 and allow 116.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 120.5 for the Hawks and 109.4 for the Magic, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hawks' offense is the stronger unit against the Magic's defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026, Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, and Noah Penda (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), Jock Landale (ATL), and Jalen Suggs (ORL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hawks lead 7-3, with the Hawks outscoring the Magic by an average of 4.7 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 132, ORL 125.