Our ratings lean toward the Lakers on the road against the Mavericks on Sunday, February 28, at about 62%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Lakers 62%, with a projected score of Los Angeles Lakers 116, Dallas Mavericks 113. The rating gap is 187 points in favor of the Lakers, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Mavericks on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 38 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Lakers are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2. The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2.
The Lakers' best recent win was 127-105 at home against GSW.
The Lakers were beaten 131-108 at home by OKC not long ago.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Lakers score 128 a game and allow 115. The Mavericks score 112.3 and allow 118.3. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 123.2 for the Lakers and 113.7 for the Mavericks, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Lakers' offense is the stronger unit against the Mavericks' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Cameron Carr (LAL), expected back Oct 27, 2026, Adou Thiero (LAL), expected back Oct 27, 2026, Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Caleb Martin (DAL) and Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Lakers lead 5-2, with the Lakers outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 4.6 points per game. The last meeting was LAL 128, DAL 134.