The edge goes to the Grizzlies at home against the Kings on Saturday, February 27, at about 68%. That is a real edge, but the Kings are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Grizzlies 68%, with a projected score of Sacramento Kings 112, Memphis Grizzlies 117. The rating gap is 29 points in favor of the Grizzlies, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Grizzlies on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 32 times in 100 games like this, the Kings would win.
Recent form
The Kings are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -10. The Grizzlies are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6.
The Kings were beaten 121-96 on the road by LAC not long ago.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Kings score 109.3 a game and allow 124. The Grizzlies score 119 and allow 107.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 108.5 for the Kings and 121.5 for the Grizzlies, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Kings have defended better than the Grizzlies have scored, so the Grizzlies may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Dylan Cardwell (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Maxime Raynaud (SAC), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Ben Simmons (SAC), expected back Oct 1, 2027, Keegan Murray (SAC), expected back Oct 27, 2026, and Zach Edey (MEM), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Grizzlies lead 5-3, with the Grizzlies outscoring the Kings by an average of 5.6 points per game. The last meeting was MEM 123, SAC 112.