Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons on Saturday, February 27 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Pistons at only 55%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Pistons 55%, with a projected score of Oklahoma City Thunder 114, Detroit Pistons 115. The rating gap is 63 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Pistons on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 45 times in 100 games like this, the Thunder would win.
Recent form
The Thunder are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.8. The Pistons are 3-0 this season and 4-1 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +5.6.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Pistons' best recent win was 115-94 on the road against CLE.
The Pistons were beaten 125-94 at home by CLE not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Thunder score 106.7 a game and allow 96.3. The Pistons score 118.3 and allow 105.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 106.2 for the Thunder and 107.3 for the Pistons, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pistons should find points against the Thunder's defense, which has been giving up 96.3.
Injuries to watch
Out: Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Nikola Topic (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Otega Oweh (OKC), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Ausar Thompson (DET), expected back Oct 27, 2026, and Jalen Duren (DET), expected back Nov 9, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Jaylin Williams (OKC), Cason Wallace (OKC), and Isaiah Joe (DET). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 3-1, with the Thunder outscoring the Pistons by an average of 4.5 points per game. The last meeting was DET 110, OKC 114.