Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers on Friday, February 26 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Trail Blazers about a 81% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Trail Blazers 81%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 110, Portland Trail Blazers 119. The rating gap is 148 points in favor of the Trail Blazers, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Trail Blazers on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Trail Blazers are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -0.6.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Trail Blazers' best recent win was 124-83 at home against PHX.
The Trail Blazers were beaten 114-93 at home by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Shaedon Sharpe (POR), expected back Mar 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Caleb Martin (DAL), Cooper Flagg (DAL), Chris Youngblood (POR), and Branden Carlson (POR). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Mavericks lead 5-2, with the Mavericks outscoring the Trail Blazers by an average of 5.9 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 100, POR 93.