Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs on Friday, February 26 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 91% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 91%, with a projected score of Memphis Grizzlies 107, San Antonio Spurs 122. The rating gap is 312 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Spurs on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 11 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Grizzlies are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.6. The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
Offense against defense
The Grizzlies score 119 a game and allow 107.7. The Spurs score 112 and allow 112. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 115.5 for the Grizzlies and 109.9 for the Spurs, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Grizzlies' offense is the stronger unit against the Spurs' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Zach Edey (MEM), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Karim Lopez (MEM), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Grizzlies outscoring the Spurs by an average of 2.2 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 123, MEM 98.