Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, February 26 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Timberwolves about a 86% chance, and the Pacers would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 86%, with a projected score of Indiana Pacers 109, Minnesota Timberwolves 120. The rating gap is 222 points in favor of the Timberwolves, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 7 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Pacers are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.8. The Timberwolves are 3-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +2.2.
The Pacers' best recent win was 136-109 on the road against BKN.
The Pacers were beaten 121-105 at home by DAL not long ago.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Pacers score 121.3 a game and allow 116.7. The Timberwolves score 121 and allow 97.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 109.5 for the Pacers and 118.9 for the Timberwolves, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Pacers' offense is the stronger unit against the Timberwolves' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: T.J. McConnell (IND), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Johnny Furphy (IND), expected back Jan 2, 2027, Ben Sheppard (IND), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Ivica Zubac (IND). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Timberwolves outscoring the Pacers by an average of 1.5 points per game. The last meeting was MIN 124, IND 104.