The edge goes to the Raptors at home against the Hawks on Friday, February 26, at about 60%. That is a real edge, but the Hawks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Raptors 60%, with a projected score of Atlanta Hawks 113, Toronto Raptors 116. The rating gap is 33 points in favor of the Hawks, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Raptors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 40 times in 100 games like this, the Hawks would win.
Recent form
The Hawks are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Raptors are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +4.
The Hawks' best recent win was 128-81 on the road against CHA.
The Hawks were beaten 140-89 at home by NYK not long ago.
The Raptors' best recent win was 135-92 at home against CHI.
The Raptors were beaten 117-94 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Hawks score 124.7 a game and allow 109. The Raptors score 113.7 and allow 103.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 114.2 for the Hawks and 111.4 for the Raptors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Hawks' offense is the stronger unit against the Raptors' defense.
Injuries to watch
Out: Henri Veesaar (ATL), expected back Jul 1, 2027, Mouhamed Gueye (ATL), expected back Nov 20, 2026, Nate Bittle (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Kawhi Leonard (TOR), expected back Oct 28, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: RayJ Dennis (ATL), Keshon Gilbert (ATL), and Jock Landale (ATL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Raptors lead 6-1, with the Raptors outscoring the Hawks by an average of 9.1 points per game. The last meeting was ATL 100, TOR 118.