The Win Meter favors the Warriors at home against the Mavericks on Thursday, February 25, at about 68%. That is a real edge, but the Mavericks are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Warriors 68%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 112, Golden State Warriors 117. The rating gap is 31 points in favor of the Warriors, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Warriors on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 32 times in 100 games like this, the Mavericks would win.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Warriors are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -8.8.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Warriors were beaten 127-105 on the road by LAL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.3 a game and allow 118.3. The Warriors score 111.7 and allow 123. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.7 for the Mavericks and 115 for the Warriors, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Warriors have been tough to score on, which should slow the Mavericks.
The Mavericks have defended better than the Warriors have scored, so the Warriors may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Kristaps Porzingis (GSW), expected back Dec 1, 2026, and Jimmy Butler (GSW), expected back Jan 2, 2027.
Day to day or questionable: Caleb Martin (DAL), Cooper Flagg (DAL), Gui Santos (GSW), and Charles Bassey (GSW). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Warriors lead 4-3, with the Warriors outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 3 points per game. The last meeting was GSW 137, DAL 131.