San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday, February 18 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Timberwolves at only 53%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Timberwolves 53%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 115, Minnesota Timberwolves 116. The rating gap is 81 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Timberwolves on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 47 times in 100 games like this, the Spurs would win.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Timberwolves are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.4.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Timberwolves' best recent win was 131-106 on the road against MIA.
The Timberwolves were beaten 139-109 at home by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026, and Donte DiVincenzo (MIN), expected back Apr 2, 2027.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Timberwolves lead 7-6, with the Spurs outscoring the Timberwolves by an average of 4.8 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 139, MIN 109.