Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets on Wednesday, February 17 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Nuggets about a 89% chance, and the Jazz would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Nuggets 89%, with a projected score of Utah Jazz 109, Denver Nuggets 122. The rating gap is 270 points in favor of the Nuggets, and home court and rest add about 101 rating points for the Nuggets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 9 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Jazz are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1.2. The Nuggets are 1-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Jazz's best recent win was 147-101 at home against MEM.
The Jazz were beaten 131-107 on the road by LAL not long ago.
The Nuggets were beaten 112-96 on the road by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jusuf Nurkic (UTA), expected back Nov 4, 2026, Trey Alexander (UTA), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Spencer Jones (DEN), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Julian Strawther (DEN), expected back Nov 29, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Cameron Johnson (DEN) and Alpha Diallo (DEN). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Nuggets lead 8-0, with the Nuggets outscoring the Jazz by an average of 17.1 points per game. The last meeting was DEN 130, UTA 117.