San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday, February 17 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Spurs about a 79% chance, and the Grizzlies would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 79%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 119, Memphis Grizzlies 111. The rating gap is 327 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 99 rating points for the Grizzlies on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Grizzlies are 2-0 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.2.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Grizzlies' best recent win was 123-103 at home against UTA.
The Grizzlies were beaten 147-101 on the road by UTA not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026, Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026, Zach Edey (MEM), expected back Oct 26, 2026, Karim Lopez (MEM), expected back Oct 26, 2026, and Javon Small (MEM).
Day to day or questionable: Cedric Coward (MEM). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Grizzlies outscoring the Spurs by an average of 2.3 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 123, MEM 98.