Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic on Wednesday, February 17 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Magic about a 78% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Magic 78%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 111, Orlando Magic 119. The rating gap is 121 points in favor of the Magic, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Magic on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 5 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Magic are 0-2 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.4.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, and Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Caleb Martin (DAL), Cooper Flagg (DAL), and Anthony Black (ORL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Mavericks outscoring the Magic by an average of 5 points per game. The last meeting was ORL 138, DAL 127.