Orlando Magic at Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday, February 15 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Thunder about a 84% chance, and the Magic would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Thunder 84%, with a projected score of Orlando Magic 110, Oklahoma City Thunder 120. The rating gap is 193 points in favor of the Thunder, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Thunder on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Magic are 0-2 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.4. The Thunder are 2-0 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of +0.4.
The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Thunder were beaten 118-91 on the road by SAS not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Noah Penda (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Paolo Banchero (ORL), expected back Nov 22, 2026, and Thomas Sorber (OKC), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Anthony Black (ORL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Thunder lead 4-0, with the Thunder outscoring the Magic by an average of 15.8 points per game. The last meeting was OKC 113, ORL 108.