The Win Meter favors the Spurs on the road against the Heat on Monday, February 15, at about 64%. That is a real edge, but the Heat are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Spurs 64%, with a projected score of San Antonio Spurs 117, Miami Heat 113. The rating gap is 200 points in favor of the Spurs, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Heat on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 36 times in 100 games like this, the Heat would win.
Recent form
The Spurs are 1-2 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -1. The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4.
The Spurs' best recent win was 122-106 on the road against DAL.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Spurs score 112 a game and allow 112. The Heat score 109 and allow 124.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 118.4 for the Spurs and 110.5 for the Heat, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Heat have been tough to score on, which should slow the Spurs.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jayden Quaintance (SAS), expected back Dec 3, 2026 and Tobias Harris (SAS), expected back Oct 27, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Pelle Larsson (MIA). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Spurs outscoring the Heat by an average of 2 points per game. The last meeting was SAS 136, MIA 111.