Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards on Saturday, February 13 is about as close to a coin flip as the ratings get, with the Wizards at only 56%. Small things like rest, health and shooting variance should decide it.
Why it is so close
The Win Meter reads the Wizards 56%, with a projected score of Milwaukee Bucks 114, Washington Wizards 116. The rating gap is 61 points in favor of the Bucks, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Wizards on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 44 times in 100 games like this, the Bucks would win.
Recent form
The Bucks are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.6. The Wizards are 2-1 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -6.
The Bucks' best recent win was 125-108 at home against BKN.
The Bucks were beaten 126-106 on the road by PHI not long ago.
The Wizards were beaten 140-117 at home by MIA not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Bucks score 119 a game and allow 129. The Wizards score 118 and allow 116. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 117.5 for the Bucks and 123.5 for the Wizards, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Bucks have defended better than the Wizards have scored, so the Wizards may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Tristan Vukcevic (WAS), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Jamir Watkins (WAS), expected back Apr 2, 2027, and AJ Dybantsa (WAS), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the series is even, with the Bucks outscoring the Wizards by an average of 1.4 points per game. The last meeting was MIL 116, WAS 128.