Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets on Saturday, February 13 looks like a mismatch on paper. Our ratings give the Hornets about a 82% chance, and the Mavericks would need an unusual night to change that.
Why the gap is wide
The Win Meter reads the Hornets 82%, with a projected score of Dallas Mavericks 110, Charlotte Hornets 120. The rating gap is 160 points in favor of the Hornets, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Hornets on top of that.
A reading this high has real meaning, but upsets of this size happen. Nearly one game in 6 like it goes the other way.
Recent form
The Mavericks are 1-2 this season and 2-3 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -3.2. The Hornets are 2-1 this season and 3-2 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -13.
The Mavericks' best recent win was 149-128 at home against CHI.
The Mavericks were beaten 139-120 on the road by SAS not long ago.
The Hornets were beaten 128-81 at home by ATL not long ago.
Offense against defense
The Mavericks score 112.3 a game and allow 118.3. The Hornets score 102 and allow 113.7. Pairing each offense with the other defense points to about 113 for the Mavericks and 110.2 for the Hornets, a simple check on the Win Meter's projection.
The Mavericks have defended better than the Hornets have scored, so the Hornets may need to find offense elsewhere.
Injuries to watch
Out: Santi Aldama (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Dereck Lively II (DAL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Tarik Biberovic (DAL), expected back Nov 2, 2026, Kylan Boswell (CHA), expected back Nov 2, 2026, and Coby White (CHA), expected back Oct 26, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Caleb Martin (DAL) and Cooper Flagg (DAL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Hornets lead 3-1, with the Hornets outscoring the Mavericks by an average of 6.8 points per game. The last meeting was DAL 90, CHA 117.