The edge goes to the Magic at home against the Heat on Friday, February 12, at about 69%. That is a real edge, but the Heat are far from out of it.
How the Win Meter reads
The Win Meter reads the Magic 69%, with a projected score of Miami Heat 113, Orlando Magic 118. The rating gap is 36 points in favor of the Magic, and home court and rest add about 100 rating points for the Magic on top of that.
Readings in this range leave plenty of room for the other side. About 31 times in 100 games like this, the Heat would win.
Recent form
The Heat are 0-3 this season and 1-4 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -4.4. The Magic are 0-2 this season and 0-5 in their last 5 games, with an average margin of -14.4.
The Heat's best recent win was 143-117 at home against ATL.
The Heat were beaten 131-106 at home by MIN not long ago.
The Magic were beaten 115-93 at home by MIN not long ago.
Injuries to watch
Out: Jonathan Isaac (ORL), expected back Oct 28, 2026, Izaiyah Nelson (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, Noah Penda (ORL), expected back Nov 18, 2026, and Paolo Banchero (ORL), expected back Nov 22, 2026.
Day to day or questionable: Pelle Larsson (MIA) and Anthony Black (ORL). Their status can change before tip-off.
The season series
In our records of recent meetings, the Magic lead 7-2, with the Magic outscoring the Heat by an average of 5.1 points per game. The last meeting was ORL 121, MIA 117.